A power plant strategy is needed!
From 2040, wind, solar and hydropower will cover our electricity needs completely and cost-effectively in the summer months. It will only be necessary to supplement this with storage facilities and possibly a little nuclear power from abroad. In all cases, the storage facilities will stabilize the grid and distribute power.
However, this is not enough in the extended winter half-year (mid-September to the end of April). The low level of solar energy and the additional electricity required by heat pumps in the winter months make gas-fired power plants indispensable. These must cover up to a fifth of the total electricity demand during this period. On days with “cold dark doldrums”, they even have to cover up to 85% of the total daily energy. On the 60 or so windy days in the winter half-year, on the other hand, we do not need any electricity from gas-fired power plants despite the additional demand and low solar energy.
What does this mean for the German power plant market?
We urgently need around 40 GW of combined gas and steam power plants (CCGT) and 60 GW of gas-fired power plants (GT) as “gap fillers” and reserve capacity in the winter half-year. Due to the low-capacity utilization of these power plants, additional capacity premiums are necessary, e.g. annually approx. 60 €/kW for CCGT and 30 €/kW for CCGT power plants. These performance premiums could also be competitively tendered.
Our recommendation to German politicians:
Action must finally be taken with expertise and without ideology. A sustainable, market-oriented and appropriate strategy and sufficient incentives are needed! This is the only solution. Because if the conditions are not lucrative, the economy will invest elsewhere.
